Sharan Tabari and Trudy Gold
Two Wars One Deal, What Next

In conversation with Trudy Gold, I seek to show that war with the Islamic Republic was, and remains, inevitable. This is illustrated by the statement made at the funeral on 4 July by one of the IRGC’s senior advisers (Yahya Rahim Safavi) to Ayatollah Khamenei: “The Islamic Republic and Israel are engaged in an existential war. I am confident that Israel is the one that will be destroyed.” Statements of this kind should be taken with the utmost seriousness. They are not merely political slogans intended for domestic consumption; they reflect a long-standing strategic doctrine and the ideological convictions of the regime’s leadership.

Against this background, the recently announced 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with the Islamic Republic appears more like a “Memorandum of Misunderstanding.” It did not resolve the fundamental conflict between the regime’s declared objectives and the expectations of the international community. What comes next should reflect President Trump’s own formulation: “They should either make it or we finish it.” Two days later, at the NATO summit, President Trump declared that the ceasefire had effectively been broken after Iranian strikes targeted US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. This was followed by US attacks on targets around the Strait of Hormuz. Whether these events constitute the opening phase of a third war remains uncertain.